This off-season I will be doing a Mailbag about every 10 days, with 5 of them happening before we get to August.
MAILBAG REQUEST! Off-Season #3
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What are your thoughts on look ahead games of the year offered as early as months ago on these sports books?
When the time comes let's say in October or November do you put any value in a game that may have opened 5+ points from where it sits at now? I know the number will have moved for a reason (injuries, etc), but still. Would you ever consider playing side anticipating a great year for the side you are playing (Team A) while anticipating a bad year for the side being faded (Team B)? If your preseason projections have Team A let's say 8 points better than Team B, but the spread is only 3 it could be a…
How much value do you put into a team having the better QB?
You brought up Texas vs Alabama in the Texas preview, stating that Texas dominated the game even with Ewers getting knocked out and being limited w Hudson Card. But, of course when it mattered most late is was the Bryce Young show. Are some QBs that good where you are even more hesitant to fade them? Are the good / best ones worth a set amount of points in the spread? Or is this all non existent for you and it all comes back to the numbers as a team?
Do you find it difficult to keep a healthy balance between your numbers and the eye test?
For example, let's say you are looking a week ahead to a game and you lean a side, but then on Monday your numbers are spitting out info to lean the complete other side. Does this lead to a pass on the game? Or would you trust numbers over the eye test? or vice versa?
Do you bail on a future or win total and hedge if it looks like your pre-season perspective was clearly wrong? How many weeks or how big of a sample size does it take to raise the white flag?
For as long as you have been handicapping what team/teams have gotten the most home field advantage of anyone.
My guess is Mississippi st.