Housekeeping - End of 24/25 Season

And just like that, another CFB season is wrapped up. It was a unique season as the new 12 team playoff was unveiled, and the first season with only 4 Power conferences.

Congrats to Ohio St fans and backers - it was a great season. I'll have plenty of more thoughts on college football, national champions and the playoffs moving forward, but a quick thought on OSU.

Coming into the year I was vocal they were clearly the best team in the country (although I doubted Will Howard significantly - clearly a bad take). As futures markets took shape middle of the summer, there wasn't anywhere that had OSU much better than +450 and it was about +400 everywhere else. Even post Michigan, when it seemed like OSU was broken again, you couldn't get much better than +500. I never released it either pre-season or then as I assumed that a simple ML rollover in playoffs would likely pay a similar-ish price. I wasn't far off on that.

In the playoffs, OSU was clearly dominant but PRs and even my model continued to show significant value on every OSU opponent (especially after Oregon). OSU didn't play all year at the level they played at in the final few games so it was eye test vs models. It was a classic case of trust your head or trusting the numbers, and while it's annoying that we didn't capitalize on the OSU dominance, hopefully many were able to get on some of the leans and props shared the past few weeks that ended up largely being the right side. I'm in fact happy that I didn't end up on any of the dogs that my model showed as significant value against the Bucks, and sometimes it's the bets you don't make that end up being strong.

That said, every year there are learning lessons and ways to continue to iterate on what you should have and will do differently as new seasons approach.

Overall 2024

The service had a nice year in 2024. The Heisman bet and win totals carried the service while the traditional sides/totals had a solid but slower season.

Overall, the service finished up 21.1u this year for a 10% ROI.

Breakeven

The breakeven bet size if you're able to get down full amounts on all bets was $47.

If you were only able to get down .25u on win totals/futures, the breakeven bet size was $124.

The breakeven bet size on just sides/totals was $268.

Based on a survey ran in the middle of the year, the average bet size for the service seems to be somewhere in the $400-$700 range, with many higher than that, so it seems likely if you were a subscriber from the beginning of the year, you made money, which is something we are proud of and the reason why we ultimately do this.

Market Dynamics and Impact

The sides/totals continued to have significant market influence this year, beating the market by an average of 1.1 gross points vs the close. I tend to hate gross CLV as it overestimates CLV based on the size of the spread or total, and think % is a much better judge. The service came in with a 4.1% CLV and 76% of plays beating the market.

Keep in mind, that is with the latest service release in the industry, which should only help those who are trying to get the actual line and with the amount they want. No one does it, or atleast that I have seen, but there should be a weighting factor to CLV that factors in the limits on the date of release as 1 point on a Monday is much different than the same point on a Friday.

Release Timing

Taking that a step further, we continue to release much later in the week vs any other reputable service in the industry.

Here is the breakdown by day of week for a Saturday game:

Tues: 21%

Wed: 18%

Thurs: 18%

Friday: 29%

Saturday: 13%

61% of plays come on Thursday or later when limits should be significant more than earlier in the week.

Last 4 Seasons

I understand in this business it's what have you done for me lately, so won't get too in depth on the Last 4 seasons combined, but it's there for anyone to see it.

The last 4 seasons, the service has shown a good level of consistency. Over the course of over 800 side/total bets, we are dead on at 56% with a 7% ROI.

Play Futures and Win Totals have been really strong, while Team Futures have continued to be mostly a coin flip. That is something to keep in mind.

Things that went well/bad

As I dove deeper into this seasons stats (as well as prior seasons), I noticed a few things.

First and foremost, I should probably give up betting Overs. I bet 27 of them this season, winning just 7 for a whopping 26%. Just eliminating those would have significantly improved the totals this season. Unders came in at 59%, which is about the average over the past few seasons (61%).

We are also significantly better in out of conference matchups at 61% vs in conference at 51%. That checks out as I pride the system and stat profiles at doing a great job of assessing strength of schedule.

The MWC and the American were the only 2 G5 conferences that I was over the mendoza line this season as well. I should just stop betting the MAC. I bet 3 MAC vs MAC matchups and went 0-3.

Over the past 4 years, if you break the season up into 3 parts (1st 5 weeks, next 5 weeks, final 5/6 weeks + bowls, we average +4.6u in the first 5 weeks, +4.2u in the middle 5 weeks and +5.1 over the next 5 weeks. Not too much signal there that we're getting better or worse as the market tightens up later in the year. This year, we had a really rough stretch in Weeks 4 and 5, but otherwise a mostly consistent year.

Volume

If you eliminate bowls from the calculus, we averaged 10 plays per week. That seems pretty reasonable and on pace with where we trended the past few seasons, and even a bit lighter. I have no issues with that number.

Website/Write-Ups

This is something that I would mark for needs improvements or needs adjustments. I didn't do a great job of keeping the website updated and I failed at providing write-ups for every game.

If I were arguing against what I just said, I think the housekeeping each week does a fine job of keeping everyone up to date on the progress of the season and how the record is pacing each week, but still no real excuse.

As it relates to the write-ups, I'm not sure I can commit to that getting better. I've realized I want to dedicate as much time as possible to continuing to deep dive into finding winners and while the write-ups are useful for many, it isn't worth it for me to provide them half-assed.

When I have time, like I did for some weeks, playoffs, natty, etc., I will likely continue to do them, but otherwise, I don't think it will be something that will get better, if they continue at all.

Thoughts on the Service

I'm happy with how the season transpired. Telegram seemed like a big improvement. Releases seemed to mostly go smooth. The season brought winners and hopefully enjoyment to everyone.

Each year I always leave it with "I'm not sure if I'll see you all next season," but this time around I feel pretty confident we'll have something going next year, and maybe get it started earlier than most season. Not sure on the pre-season previews and all of that - more to come on that later most likely. The market is always changing, and want to make sure that we're capturing as much value as possible for everyone.

Final Words

Thanks to all of you for the comments, DMs, messages, emails, support and banter. It helps make the grind better and I thoroughly hope you all enjoyed this year and left with some coin in your pockets.

Enjoy the off-season.

For some of us, 2025 season starts today.