2024 Heisman Analysis

Welcome back to another rendition of the Heisman Trophy. While lots have changed, the markets have smartened up and things have shifted, the Heisman Trophy remains largely the same. Some of this has been copied from prior editions, but the point remains the same.

Before I get into the things to think about when handicapping the Heisman, I'll recap the Joe Burrow bet I made a few years ago and then get into handicapping this award.

I wish when I made the bet on July 7, 2019 that I knew it was going to be the best bet I have ever made. If I knew that, I obviously would be writing this from my yacht somewhere right now. At the time, it was simply just following a relatively simple process but it then subsequently turned into the most exciting and fun college football season of my life.

Truth be told, it was a formula I had used to find Heisman winners 3 of the past 4 season, landing both Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray before the big 200/1 on Joe Burrow. It's so much of a formula, I even spelled Joe Burrow's name wrong throughout the tweet string.

Regardless, 200/1 quickly became the betting favorite for exactly the reasons used above. Once he beat Texas in exciting fashion, he was the favorite with Tua until the Alabama game and then it was essentially over. 200/1 was in our pocket.

So how did we get there?

The Heisman Trophy is so unique because it's awarded based on votes. You don't need to eclipse a certain amount of metrics to win the award, you just need a certain amount of votes. Like an election, if you understand the voter demographic and the way that media works, you can get a leg up on the "election" and you can use that knowledge to give you insight into future winners.

The Votes

First things first, as mentioned, this is a MEDIA award. It is primarily voted on by writers. Many of those writers don't even understand the football that they are seeing on TV in the 21st century. Out of the total votes, there are 870 for the writers, 61 votes for the previous winners and 1 vote for the fans.

So what does that mean?

Previous Winners

If you look at the chart below of the previous winners, you'll notice quite a few similarities.

What do they have in common?

First and foremost, and this seems more obvious than it is, but they need to be a household name. A player that gets talked about alot on all of the talkshows. That typically means that they are in a major conference that has a major TV contract with the big networks. Money makes this world go round and it certainly helps in handicapping the Heisman Trophy. They also need to be on TV when the voters are watching TV!

Getting more granular, let's just look at some of the numbers dating back to 2000.

Who usually wins the award?

As many know, the formula to win the Heisman is pretty simple. I’m not saying I created it, but we’ve followed it for a decade to find Heisman winners over the years.

Over the last decade, 90% of the winners have been a quarterback. 87% have been a quarterback since 2000.

Over the last decade, 90% of the winners have been from any conference BUT the PAC-12/West Coast. 79% since 2000 (Pete Caroll USC years).

100% of the winners over the last decade and the since 2000 have been on teams that have won 9+ Wins. 80% have been on 10 win teams over the last 10 years and 83% have been on 10 win teams. 80% have been on 11 win teams the last decade and 79% have been on 11 win teams the since 2000.

So making it simple – you very likely need to be a quarterback on a non-west coast team.

I do believe with the fall of the PAC12 and a majority of the teams joining the ACC, B1G or Big 12, the West Coast bias won’t matter as much. A large reason why the teams left the PAC-12 was due to TV rights, and these teams joined bigger and better conferences and will be on TV a bunch more.

So where does that leave us?

All good things tend to come to an end, and the market is certain much more correct just based on the odds. You have to get down to Travis Hunter before you find a non-QB at 65/1 or so. The teams that are leading the odds are the QBs on all of the best teams (Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Tennessee, LSU, Miami, Nore Dame, Texas A&M).

Quick thoughts on a lot of players we didn't play

Caron Beck 8.1 (average number across 7 notable books):

Beck is clearly a 5 star quarterback on one of the best teams in college football. He’ll put up good numbers, but the expectations here for Georgia and Beck is an undefeated season. First, I think they pick up a loss. Second, I don’t think Beck will have the stats. Georgia hasn’t been a team to put up unnecessary numbers and they will lean on the run game to salt away games. I am not sure he’ll be someone the  voters will rally around unless he leads multiple comebacks or winning drives for Georgia.

Quinn Ewers 9.2:

I don’t mind Ewers and I like Sark quite a bit but Ewers loses his top 3 WRs and transitions to a much tougher conference with way better defenses. I still think he and Texas will be good, but similar to Beck, I’m not sure he’s going to be generational or exciting and that’s what you need to win this award.

Jalen Milroe 13.8:

I actually like Milroe quite a bit but not at this price. He has almost no WRs and I suspect a lot of this will fall on Milroe using his legs. I suspect that the coaching change will be an upgrade for him as well. This Bama team is slated to go right around 10 wins and if they finish with 2 losses, I don’t think Milroe will be viewed as a Heisman candidate. I think you need to see insane rushing and passing stats and an 11-1 Bama team, at worse. Not sure all of those stars align. I like Alabama's price to win the SEC more than I like this price to win the Heisman.

Jaxson Dart 13.9:

Dart checks a lot of boxes here. He’s extremely experienced in his system. He has the WRs and team to match what a Heisman caliber QB needs. He has the chance for some marquee wins but the schedule still sets up nicely for the Rebs. Rebels going 10-2/11-1 and making the playoffs is viewed as a big win. He can move the ball with his legs. There isn’t much not to like here and he should be in the running at the end of the year.

Will Howard 14.6:

This OSU team is very likely the best team in the country but I think they approach this season by playing great defense and running the ball. I don’ t think Howard is going to be asked to win many games and when compared to other OSU great QBs, I think he’ll fall much shorter when you compare stats.

Nico Iamaleava 15.4:

I like Nico quite a bit but its asking a lot for a player, even one of his caliber, to step in to SEC play and deliver a Heisman level performance against the schedule that Tennessee faces. I think they’re an 8/9 win team and while he probably shows some flashes of awesomeness, I don’t think that this Tenny team will be good enough to get him the Heisman. He probably makes a few too many mistakes as well.

Garrett Nussmeier 18:

I don’t think this LSU team is going to be very good (relatively), and unfortunately, Nussmeier is going to be compared to Daniels every step of the way. While they do have some nice WRs that they brought in, they lose 2 guys to the NFL which is almost impossible to replace. The OL will be good, but in totality, I’m not in love with LSU and I think Nuss will have an extra hurdle with voters reluctant to go back to back LSU quarterbacks.

Riley Leonard 23.4:

Leonard checks alot of boxes. He's on a marquee team with a nice win total and a schedule that sets up pretty well. He can do enough with his legs to be pretty dangerous, he just hasn't proven at any point in his career to date that he's a good passer. He is teaming up with the OC of the prior Heisman winner, so that is another feather in his cap but I don't see him doing enough with his arm to be able to win the award unless he leads ND to an undefeated season.

Conner Weigman 25.4:

I like Weigman quite a bit. He was a former blue chip, he's surrounded by great WRs and he's on a team that should be contending for the SEC. I just don't think that Weigman is going to get enough opportunities through the air to win this award by showcasing his arm. Collin Klein is the new OC, who I like, but I think they lean on the run game quite a bit here. Weigman has the talent, but don't think a 10-2 A&M QB wins the award unless his stats are really that much better than everyone elses, which they won't be.

Avery Johnson 27.9:

Based on some exciting plays using his legs, Avery Johnson has gotten a ton of hype. KSU has an easy schedule in an easier B12 conference but he hasn't shown any real ability to pass the ball, they have significant turnover on the offensive line and the WRs aren't all that exciting. I think Johnson will make electric plays here and there, and this should be a pretty good KSU team, but similar to many above, don' think he does enough.

Jackson Arnold 28:

Don't love the WRs, the OL or the schedule. Price is way too short to consider.

Noah Fifita 28.4:

Bearish on Arizona this year and unless they go 11-1 or something, don't think he's involved in the convo.

DJ U 29.6:

Don't love the WRs, down-ish year for FSU and DJ U is what he is at this point. A fine college QB and probably a decent future CFL QB.

Brady Cook 30.6:

This is a name that is intriguing and that I was toying with. Missouri has a really good group of WRs and Cook is experienced. The problem is he hasn't shown a great ability to pass the ball with his per game averages falling consistently short of Heisman winners. They have averaged 313 PY/Gm, 52 Rush Yd/Gm and 3.8 TD/Gm. He had 255, 25, and 2.2 last year. That probably increases this year and Missouri will likely be in more shoot outs, but I don't think this defense is going to be good enough for Mizzou to really make a huge stand like many are expecting. 9-3 Missouri QB probably doesn't get it done.

Shedeur Sanders 31.3:

If I'm playing someone, which I did, on a hopeful 7-5/8-4 Colorado team, it isn't Sanders.

Jalon Daniels 34.4:

Intriguing name here and schedule sets up pretty well for them, but you need a 10-2/11-1 Kansas team and i'm not quite sure that happens. Also a ton of injury risk here with Daniels and you aren't getting a cheap price.

Miller Moss 35:

I understand the Riley QB hype and Moss is probably decent, but the B1G schedule isn't friendly at all and I think this is a 8-4 USC team, and even if they win 9 or 10, not sure he'll have the stats against all B1G defenses.

Cade Klubnik 36.6:

Think I've lost enough money betting on Cade led Clemson teams at this point, but this is a fair price. There is a pretty good chance this is a 10 win team but not sure that we're going to see this offense put up enough points this year.

Drew Allar 39.1:

Mildly intriguing with the new OC hire, but still don't love the WRs all that much. If there is someone in the 30/40 range to play, it's either Allar or Cook.

Our Bets

Dillon Gabriel 10/1

Obviously we like Gabriel a lot here and think he’s the best play at the top of the board. We saw exactly what Oregon’s offense is capable of a season ago with Bo Nix and think that Gabriel is better than Bo Nix. Similar to Nix he’ll have the journeyman storyline going for him and this could be viewed as a career award, but he also is extremely good. When compared to the averages of the prior 7 QB winners, Gabriel is in range on yards/game, TDs/Gm, Yd/Gm, PPA/Play, Comp %. He is more in line with previous winners than anyone else.

One of the caveats of a Heisman play was avoiding west coast guys UNLESS they played for Oregon or USC, as those have been the only schools that have shown enough reach to get guys to the trophy. Of course he checks the Oregon box, but they're also in the B1G now so he'll be all over the TV.

Cam Ward 20/1

I toyed with how to play Miami for a long time. They always have one of the better rosters in college football, and this time they have that and they have one of the more experienced QBs in the country. Not only that, Ward's numbers are pretty in line with prior Heisman winners and he did that while at Wazzou on a team with really bad WRs in a conference they were largely out matched. LY he averaged 311 pass yd/game, 2.8 TD/game, 67% completions. Now he teams up with a OC that likes to spread the ball around, one of the better OLs in the country, a good group of WRs and a clear path at double digit wins and a conference championship. If Miami is in the conversation at the end of the year and "THE U" is back, the media will eat it up and Ward likely will have the numbers to get him to New York. I'm not sure I can trust Miami team futures, but this is one I like quite a bit. Bonus is he faces less Top 40 defenses than most other guys at the top of the board and his secondary has some concerns, so they could be in some shootouts.

Travis Hunter 60/1

I know this totally goes against the grain of what has previously won the Heisman, but in the spirit of the award being given to the BEST player in college football, I think this is a bet on that guy. I firmly believe that Travis Hunter deserves that distinction.

A couple things.

As we get closer to the end of the year, people will talk about draft stock. Hunter is a first round pick at WR OR CB. That is completely insane and it is Shohei levels of talent. In 8 games last year he had 720 receiving yards, 5 TD, 5 pass break ups and 3 INT. Assume he plays the full season, if he can get something like 1100, 10 TD, 6 INT I think it's going to be VERY hard to ignore. And if it gets to that point, he's going to be compared to what Charles Woodson did, which was...

1 Kick Return TD, 11 Rec for 231 Yards and 2 TD, 1 Rush TD and 7 INT.

I know it's a different time period, but you'll still be seeing that graphic. Beyond that, the TV networks love Colorado so if they get a little hot, we're going to hear about them on every show and we'll have every game in prime time.

Yes, Colorado's win total is a clear concern, but I'm a bit more bullish on them this year. The conference lightens up a bit and the roster, on paper, is very good.

Finally, the data doesn't really show this but anecdotally it seems that the voters are tiring of the "best QB best team" award. If somehow Colorado gets to 7-5, 8-4, I think there is going to be some serious discussions about Travis Hunter.

Plus, this is a media award and we do have some connections into that narrative, so stay tuned for alot of annoying tweets talking our book towards the end of the year if things align appropriately.

KJ Jefferson 120/1

I thought what the fat boy at Arkansas did to support KJ last year at WR was completely and utterly pathetic. KJ was coming off of a season where he had put up 68% completions, 2700 yards, 24/5 (in just 11 games), 640 rush yard, 9 rushing TDs and you then saddle him with a bunch of FCS WRs and an absolutely ass OC. Here were my comments in my 2023 team preview:

Now we get KJ Jefferson on a team coached by Gus Malzahn, supported by a bunch of intriguing names at the skill positions and an offense that will want them to move the ball fast. There is a pathway for this UCF team to win the Big 12, and if they do that and KJ is a big reason as to why, he could be in the conversation. He's accurate enough, runs the ball enough and gets the ball in the end zone enough on a team that could approach double digit wins that at 120/1, it was a no brainer.