Troy always had the dream 2022 season in their deck of cards. They are normally one of, if not the most talented team in the conference. It was just a matter of putting together the pieces and in his first season at the helm, Jon Sumrall was able to do it. Troy ended up 12-2 overall, winning the Sun Belt. Their only losses were to Ole Miss, in a game that they were in for 3 quarters, and Appalachian State, on a last second hail mary. As you can see, they relied on a defense that was always better than expectation and outside of Ole Miss and App State, the only team they allowed to score 27 points against them was Western Kentucky. The offense actually wasn’t all that great, but the defense was so good, the offense was given good opportunities and they did their part to put this team into good positions to win football games.
As you can see, the offense was barely passable, and ended up the year ranked 94th in the NCAA, which put them 10th in their conference. This offense survived because they were able to pass the ball decently, and that ultimately allowed them to keep moving the chains, flip the field and rely on their defense to ultimately create havoc. It’s a decent recipe for success, but one that never makes you feel comfortable. Given their offensive line and run game were terrible, they weren’t often able to control the game with their offense. That said, 2022 improved the offense from 124th back up to 94th, the range in which they ranked with the prior staff at the helm. The big question will be if the new staff in their second season will be able to take this offense to the next level. It certainly starts up front.
As inconsistent as the offense was, the defense was the complete opposite. They made everything challenging for opposing offenses. They ranked 18th in yards to go, but only 43rd in success rate. Still a good number, but this defense clearly bent slightly, but never broke. They ranked 2nd in explosive passes allowed and 21nd in explosive rushes allowed. You may get a little something going against this team, but you rarely got much. Once you got into their green zone, if you did, you rarely scored touchdowns. It was a very good defense, and they did it without creating significant havoc up front. Low risk, high reward.
Offense
While this team was the conference champion, the offense left quite a bit to be desired. Gunnar Watson returns as the signal caller, and while the passing offense was better than the rushing, there is still a big opportunity for improvement. Watson passed for 2800 yards and 14/12 TD/INT. Nothing is attractive about those numbers. He did rank 3rd in the conference per PFF, but the underlying metrics are relatively middling and by WPC+, that sounds about right. He had a 133 WPC+, indicating he was about 33% better than your average FBS starter, but the ceiling is much higher than his performance.
He'll also have to find a new number one target. Tez Johnson was responsible for 81 targets and 56 receptions, but he is off to Oregon. RaJae Johnson could be next in line, and his ceiling may be even greater. He had 7 TDs last year to Johnson’s 3, and his average catch was nearly 20 yards. Johnson was PFF’s highest graded WR in the conference, but RaJae wasn’t far behind him and Jabre Barber was next in line. He only got 34 targets but had 25 catches on those targets and averaged 14 yards per catch with 2 TD. He also had 3.11 yards/route run which means there could likely be more improvements in the tank. Losing Tez is not easy, but there are enough pieces here for the passing game to be as good, if not better.
But it has to start up front, and there are some concerns here. They lose 3 starters off the offensive line, and those guys played over 900 snaps each. The positive is that the highest graded lineman per PFF was Daniel King at RG, who returns. They’ll also have back Grant Betts, along with a few other players that did get some snaps, but this was a unit that very rarely rotated in others. They brought in two transfers with hopes that they can bring some stability to this position room, but it has question marks.
But the running back room is in good shape under the assumption that the offensive line can get it together. Kimani Vidal got all-conference honors in 2022 and is back for his junior season. He ran for over 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was the 2nd best RB in the conference per PFF. There is some pretty solid talent behind him as well, so this won’t be the down fall of this offense. That depth includes former high 4 star, Asa Martin. He spent his first year at Auburn, and then the last 3 seasons at Memphis.
All in all, if the passing game can improve, it all falls on the offensive line and the play calling. This offense has to open up just slightly to make improvements from 2022.
Defense
It was a fantastic defense in 2022 that was led by all-time NCAA leading tackler Carlton Martial, who has finally graduated and is off to the NFL. Departing with him is fellow starting LB KJ Robertson and that leaves the position group with only 20% of their tackles returning. The staff trust those in line, or atleast do as of this writing, as the portal hasn’t been used for the position. Terry Thomas and Jayden McDonald are the next in line based on 2022 snap counts, but and they certainly need to step up given what departs.
The good news is that they should continue to be able to create havoc up front. Their top 3 team leaders in tackles for loss all return, and 3 of the top 4 in sacks. The big concern for me is run defense. Obviously as mentioned Martial and Robertson depart from the LB group, but so do DT Will Choloh and Shakel Brown. Add in TJ Harris and Craig Slocum graduating and that is a lot of juice in the middle that has departed, and the biggest concern will be replacing those guys. That said, TJ Jackson is a stud, as is Javon Solomon. Keep an eye on Richard Jibunor as well, who was one of the team leaders in sacks. The pressure won’t be a concern.
And the secondary likely isn’t a concern either. Both cornerbacks returning, including Reddy Stewart who led the team with 14 passes defended and was the #1 ranked coverage player in the conference last year. Number 3 in the conference was Keyshawn Swanson who also returns, so it’s hard to see this secondary taking a step back.
The big question on this defense is just replacing the talent in the middle of the field.
Summary
I don’t think the offense will be worse-off in 2023, but the ceiling will depend on playcalling opening up a bit. The defense loses quite a bit of talent up the middle of the field with 2 DT and 2 LB departing, but there is so much other talent on this defense that it should still be a quality unit – maybe just a little bit different.
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