Anything short of a Michigan win and playing for a National Championship is a wasted season in Columbus, and the Buckeyes fell short of both goals in 2022. As we’ve come to know and expect, the Buckeyes once again had the top offense in college football – they’ve been 1 the last 3 seasons, led by CJ Stroud. The offense consistently just dominated teams into submission, which gave the defense a leg up. When you have the ability to constantly play from a position of power, your defense is starting on second base because they’re generally forcing the hand of their opponents and how the opponents now have to attack and scheme their offense. And the D mostly did their jobs. Obviously there were some lapses, but even in the Michigan game they outperformed expectations. This was easily a Top 4 team in college football, they just ran into a buzz saw with Michigan and took UGA to the wire and was a FG at the buzzer from winning.
The O did nearly everything well. Their passing unit ranked 3rd, the run game 12th and the offensive line 6th. You couldn’t slow this team down. They had a 53% success rate and picked up on average 60% of the yards available to them. They had a .41 EPA/play, so if they rank 80 plays per game, which was about average, they were scoring in the 30s on you, and frequently, they scored much more. There is nowhere you can really complain about this offense.
The defense was pretty solid as well, though they had some clear deficiencies. They were downright bad once teams got into the green zone, allowing far too many touchdowns. That’s quite unusual for a team of OSUs talent. Normally when the field starts to shrink and opponents can’t spread you out, the talent begins to win in small spaces, but that wasn’t the case here. They also were just average in EPA/play allowed. While they didn’t allow too many explosive plays, they didn’t make enough big plays on their defense, or not as many as you would have hoped. The secondary was certainly the biggest liability of this defensive front, and teams knew they had to attack them there because the defensive line was sound and tough.
Offense
Brian Hartline was promoted to officially become the OC, as Ohio State knew they needed to continue to give him promotions and raises to keep him at Ohio State, but it’s unclear where the playcalling duties will like. My guess is that we’ll still get a heavy dose of exactly what Ryan Day would call, so I don’t expect much to be different.
What will be different though is that Ohio State will be starting a season without CJ Stroud for the first time in two years. It’s been the biggest storyline of the off-season and I’m pretty convinced that Ryan Day let this competition stay open on purpose. Kyle McCord and Devin Brown are similar guys. Both 6’3, both were about the exact same level of recruit, but McCord brings an added year of experience in the system. By not naming a starter, Day has successfully kept both on campus as they head into fall. Frankly, he could pull a Jim Harbaugh and let them both take snaps in their first 3 games of the year against Indiana, Youngstown State and WKU.
Whoever it is will be blessed with the best receiver room in the country. They return Marvin Harrison Jr. who is the best receiver in college football, and Emeka Egbuka isn’t far behind him and both are back. They’ll then rotate in former 5 star and experienced starter Julian Fleming, Jayden Ballard, Carnell Tate, Joko Antwi, Kyion Grayes, and Brandon Inniss. All of them are super talented and touted prospects. Cade Stover also returns at tight end with a full season starting under his belt and OSU has other experience behind these guys that is just as talented as everyone else.
Both TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are back and both have tons of experience and are capable backs, as long as there is health. All the backups are equally as talented, but the 1-2 punch here is as good as any running back room in the country and there is depth if necessary.
The biggest question mark is going to come at offensive line. They only return 45% of their production from last year, but that includes 2 guys that were all-conference players in Matthew jones and Donovan Jackson. They’ll be introducing 3 new starters who have to replace 3 guys who were drafted, which is never easy, and the biggest concern is that these guys weren’t up to the Buckeyes standards from a recruiting metric perspective. Losing 3 guys to the NFL and having to replace 2 tackles isn’t easy for any team, even the Buckeyes.
I’d project this offense falls from the overall #1 spot, but it still will be a top offense, but probably Top 8, not Top 1.
Defense
The defense was relatively young in 2022 which means they’ll enter 2023 with more experience than the prior year, but they do need to replace some guys in particular spots.
It’s finally time for JT Tuimoloau to have the dominating season after he broke out in 2022 and I think he probably puts his name at the top of draft boards after this upcoming year. He’s a freak athlete who had 11 tackles for loss and 4 sacks. Both of those numbers should increase. Michael Hall and Ty Hamilton got some tangible experience on the inside last season and will likely be the starters there, with Jack Sawyer opposing JT on the other side. These are two superstar 5 star guys from the 2021 class now entering the season with experience and as upperclassman. This starting unit is great. And they’ll be backed up by talented players who have gotten some snaps.
The linebacker position is set with all-conference Tommy Eichenberg returning. He’s a great quarterback in the middle of the field and led the Buckeyes in tackles last season with 120. Steele Chambers is also returning as a starter, and the two of them have played a lot of football together and should really help this defensive front be able to do what they need to do.
The question marks for the Buckeyes D exist in the secondary. They return Denzel Burke at one of the cornerback spots as a starter and Lathan Ransom at safety, but there will be 3 new starters in the secondary. They knew there may be some issues on the back and they added 3 guys from the portal all who have starting experience, and I would imagine Lorenzo Styles, a Notre Dame transfer who played cornerback in HS (ND moved him to WR), will move back to his natural position and play for his hometown Buckeyes. There is quite a bit of young but inexperienced talent on this roster that could push for playing time. Jordan Hancock at corner, Sonny Styles at safety.
Summary
Ohio State has a roster as talented as anyone’s, but they’re missing some experience in key areas. The schedule sets up that they have a few games to grow into it, but the OL is a concern, as is the secondary.
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